The last year of life in COPD: prognostication, preparation, palliation

Date of Approval
Application Number
Technical Summary

We will use CPRD GOLD data linked with HES and ONS to investigate the recording of currently identified prognostic markers for COPD. We will identify patients within CPRD with validated Read codes for COPD and investigate factors associated with mortality. We will test any existing prognostic risk models which use factors which are routinely recorded in electronic health records. We will generate a novel prognostic model using a range of putative prognostic variables. We will use multivariate logistic regression and more advanced statistical methods, aiming to create a model with greater confidence for prediction of death in the year following the annual COPD check-up. More accurate risk stratification could assist communication, shared decision-making, and advance care planning.


Jennifer Quint - Chief Investigator - Imperial College London
Laura-Jane Smith - Corresponding Applicant - Imperial College London
Cosetta Minelli - Collaborator - Imperial College London
Liam Smeeth - Collaborator - London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine ( LSHTM )
Patrick Stone - Collaborator - UCL Hospital


HES Admitted Patient Care;ONS Death Registration Data;Patient Level Index of Multiple Deprivation;Practice Level Index of Multiple Deprivation