The purpose of this study is to develop a dynamic transmission model to simulate rotavirus disease over time, including after introduction of the rotavirus vaccine. The goal of the model is to measure the impact of varying key factors (vaccine effectiveness, timing of vaccine introduction, etc.) on rotavirus disease control after the introduction of rotavirus vaccine in either the UK or Belgium. The primary outcome of interest for assessing disease control will be number of hospitalizations by age between 2011 and 2018. As tests to determine the pathogen underlying acute gastroenteritis (AGE) infections are not always performed, and under-coding of rotavirus has been documented in the literature, the model outcomes may include hospitalizations for rotaviral infection as well as for AGE more broadly.
The model will use CPRD data on hospitalizations to calibrate model inputs for rotavirus transmission risk per contact (i.e., estimates of the probability of a physical contact between an infected and uninfected individual resulting in a transmission of infection) during peak and non-peak seasons and possibly the proportion of rotavirus cases requiring hospitalizations. We will also use CPRD Gold data to assess rotavirus vaccine coverage/completion to populate model inputs.
The purpose of this study is to develop a dynamic transmission model to simulate rotavirus disease over time, including after introduction of the rotavirus vaccine. The goal of the model is to measure the impact of varying key factors (vaccine effectiveness, timing of vaccine introduction, etc.) on rotavirus disease control after the introduction of rotavirus vaccine in either the UK or Belgium. The primary outcome of interest for assessing disease control will be number of hospitalizations by age between 2011 and 2018. As tests to determine the pathogen underlying acute gastroenteritis (AGE) infections are not always performed, and under-coding of rotavirus has been documented in the literature, the model outcomes may include hospitalizations for rotaviral infection as well as for AGE more broadly.
The model will use CPRD data on hospitalizations to calibrate model inputs for rotavirus transmission risk per contact during peak and non-peak seasons and possibly the proportion of rotavirus cases requiring hospitalizations. We will also use CPRD Gold data to assess rotavirus vaccine coverage/completion to populate model inputs. Additionally, we will explore whether lab-confirmed rotavirus and incidence of rotavirus-related outcomes (primarily hospitalization) vary between vaccinated and unvaccinated children.
Hospitalization due to rotaviral infection (HES);
Hospitalization due to AGE (HES)
Katherine Hicks - Chief Investigator - RTI Health Solutions ( USA )
Lizzi Esterberg - Corresponding Applicant - RTI Health Solutions ( USA )
Baudouin Standaert - Collaborator - GSK
Justin Carrico - Collaborator - RTI Health Solutions ( USA )
Lisa McQuay - Collaborator - RTI Health Solutions ( USA )
HES Admitted Patient Care