Impact of atrial fibrillation (AF) awareness campaigns on the rate of AF related consultations in UK primary care: an interrupted time series analyses

Study type
Protocol
Date of Approval
Study reference ID
18_146
Lay Summary

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a condition in which the heart beats in an irregular manner, increasing the risk of blood clot formation and of subsequent stroke. Individuals with undiagnosed AF are therefore at an increased risk of experiencing stroke but cannot be afforded the protection of preventative anticoagulants.

Public health awareness campaigns designed to increase knowledge about AF in individuals without an existing AF diagnosis are ongoing, however it remains unclear whether these campaigns lead to increased diagnosis and treatment of undiagnosed cases. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of two atrial fibrillation (AF) related awareness campaigns (World Heart Rhythm Week (WHRW) (1) and Global AF Aware Week (GAFAW) (2)) on the frequency of primary care consultations related to AF in the United Kingdom (UK).

The study population will include all adults without a prior AF diagnosis. Among this population, the frequency of a range of consultations related to AF will be calculated for each calendar week between 2012 and 2017. An analysis will then be carried out to assess whether the frequency of these consultations is higher in the weeks immediately following the awareness campaign, compared to in all other weeks, while accounting for underlying seasonal factors.

Technical Summary

It remains unclear whether heart rhythm awareness campaigns lead to increases in GP consultations and ultimately to diagnoses of new cases. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of two atrial fibrillation (AF) related awareness campaigns (World Heart Rhythm Week (WHRW) and Global AF Aware Week (GAFAW)) on the frequency of primary care consultations related to AF in the United Kingdom (UK).

Individuals that are 18 years and above, with a minimum of 1 year of baseline data or continuous registration at a CPRD practice, and without prior record of diagnoses of AF will be included in the study population. The frequency and rate of signs, symptoms and diagnoses related to AF will be calculated in each calendar week between 2012 and 2017 (inclusive).

An interrupted time series analysis will be adopted to estimate the level and trend in rates in the baseline period and changes in level and trend post intervention. The post-intervention impact is assumed to last for 8 weeks in the analysis. Analyses will be adjusted for seasonality, subgroup analyses will be used to explore the impact of the intervention by sex, age and deprivation and sensitivity analyses will explore the impact of the length of post-intervention period.

Health Outcomes to be Measured

Atrial fibrillation diagnoses
• Pulse checks
• ECG tests
• Anti-arrhythmic prescriptions
• Oral anti-coagulant prescriptions
• Parenteral anti-coagulant prescriptions
• Irregular pulse
• Palpitations
• Breathlessness
• Chest pain
• Anti-platelet prescriptions
• Cardiovascular referrals

Collaborators

Sreeram Ramagopalan - Chief Investigator - London School Of Economics & Political Science
Cormac Sammon - Corresponding Applicant - PHMR Associates Limited ( UK )
Jeshika Singh - Collaborator - PHMR Associates Limited ( UK )
Laura McDonald - Collaborator - Bristol-Myers Squibb Pharmaceuticals Limited - UK ( BMS )
Victoria Allan - Collaborator - Bristol-Myers Squibb Pharmaceuticals Limited - UK ( BMS )

Linkages

HES Admitted Patient Care;Patient Level Index of Multiple Deprivation